Sampling and Populations

Question 11 mark

A council estimates the travel habits of everyone aged 16 or over living in its town. It studies 200 of these residents. What is the population?

Choose one answer
Hint

Identify the whole group about which the council wants information.

Worked solution

A council estimates the travel habits of everyone aged 16 or over living in its town. It studies 200 of these residents. What is the population?

  1. The 200 residents studied.
  2. Everyone aged 16 or over living in the town.
  3. All the journeys made by the 200 residents.
  4. Everyone who works for the council.
  1. The population is the whole group the study is about.
  2. Here that is everyone aged 16 or over living in the town.
  3. The 200 people studied form a sample.

Question 21 mark

A manufacturer measures 50 batteries selected from a delivery of 4000 batteries. Which group is the sample?

Choose one answer
Hint

Distinguish the group measured from the full delivery.

Worked solution

A manufacturer measures 50 batteries selected from a delivery of 4000 batteries. Which group is the sample?

  1. All 4000 batteries in the delivery.
  2. Every battery the manufacturer has ever made.
  3. The 50 batteries measured.
  4. Only batteries with a below-average life.
  1. A sample is the part of the population that is actually studied.
  2. The sample is the 50 measured batteries.

Question 31 mark

A test destroys each component that is tested. Why would the manufacturer usually test a sample rather than the whole delivery?

Choose one answer
Hint

Consider what happens to a component during the test.

Worked solution

A test destroys each component that is tested. Why would the manufacturer usually test a sample rather than the whole delivery?

  1. Testing everything would destroy the whole delivery.
  2. A sample always gives the exact result for the delivery.
  3. A small sample cannot be biased.
  4. Every component in the delivery is guaranteed to be identical.
  1. Testing every component would leave none available to use or sell.
  2. A sample limits the number destroyed, while providing an estimate of the delivery quality.

Question 42 marks

A random sample of 80 components contains 6 faulty components. Estimate the number of faulty components in a batch of 2000.

Hint

Use the sample proportion as an estimate for the whole batch.

Worked solution

A random sample of 80 components contains 6 faulty components. Estimate the number of faulty components in a batch of 2000.

  1. The sample faulty proportion is \frac{6}{80}.
  2. Apply this proportion to the batch: \frac{6}{80}\times2000=150.
  3. The estimate is 150 faulty components.

Question 51 mark

An estimate for a whole batch is calculated from the faulty proportion in a sample. Which assumption is needed?

Choose one answer
Hint

Ask what must be true for the sample proportion to describe the batch.

Worked solution

An estimate for a whole batch is calculated from the faulty proportion in a sample. Which assumption is needed?

  1. The batch must contain exactly the same number of faulty and good items.
  2. The sample must include every faulty item.
  3. The sample must have no faulty items.
  4. The sample faulty proportion is representative of the batch.
  1. Scaling the sample proportion assumes it reflects the batch proportion.
  2. If the sample is unrepresentative, the estimate can be too high or too low.

Question 62 marks

A club has 500 members. Which method best selects a random sample of 40 distinct members?

Choose one answer
Hint

A random method should allow every member to be selected.

Worked solution

A club has 500 members. Which method best selects a random sample of 40 distinct members?

  1. Choose the first 40 members who arrive.
  2. Number all members 1 to 500 and use random numbers, rejecting repeats and numbers outside that range.
  3. Ask the committee to choose their friends.
  4. Choose the 40 members who attend most often.
  1. Numbering every member includes the whole population.
  2. Random selection gives members an equal opportunity to be included.
  3. Rejecting repeats keeps the sample at 40 distinct members.

Question 72 marks

A school estimates how its pupils travel to school by counting only pupils who arrive at the bicycle racks. What is the main problem?

Choose one answer
Hint

Consider who can and cannot appear in the chosen location.

Worked solution

A school estimates how its pupils travel to school by counting only pupils who arrive at the bicycle racks. What is the main problem?

  1. The sample must be too large.
  2. Pupils arriving by bicycle are less likely to be counted.
  3. The method over-represents cyclists and can miss other travel methods.
  4. Counting pupils can never produce useful data.
  1. The location makes cyclists especially likely to be counted.
  2. Pupils using other travel methods may never pass the bicycle racks.
  3. The resulting sample can therefore give a biased picture of the school.

Question 82 marks

A random sample of five parcels has masses 104, 99, 97, 102 and 103 grams. Use the sample mean to estimate the mean mass of all parcels from the same production run.

Hint

Find the sample mean rather than scaling each measurement.

Worked solution

A random sample of five parcels has masses 104, 99, 97, 102 and 103 grams. Use the sample mean to estimate the mean mass of all parcels from the same production run.

  1. The sample total is 104+99+97+102+103=505 grams.
  2. The sample mean is 505\div5=101 grams.
  3. Estimate the population mean as 101 grams.

Question 92 marks

A random sample of bottles has mean volume 1.8 litres. Estimate the total volume, in litres, of a delivery of 250 similar bottles.

Hint

Multiply the estimated mean per item by the population size.

Worked solution

A random sample of bottles has mean volume 1.8 litres. Estimate the total volume, in litres, of a delivery of 250 similar bottles.

  1. Use 1.8 litres as the estimated mean volume per bottle.
  2. Multiply by the number of bottles: 1.8\times250=450.
  3. The estimated total is 450 litres.

Question 101 mark

A representative sample of journey times has median 12 minutes. The whole population is ten times the sample size. Which is a suitable estimate for the population median?

Choose one answer
Hint

A typical value is not a population total.

Worked solution

A representative sample of journey times has median 12 minutes. The whole population is ten times the sample size. Which is a suitable estimate for the population median?

  1. 12 minutes.
  2. 120 minutes.
  3. 1.2 minutes.
  4. 1200 minutes.
  1. A median describes a typical individual journey, not a total of all journeys.
  2. Increasing the number of journeys does not multiply each journey time.
  3. The suitable estimate is still 12 minutes.

Question 112 marks

Of 250 randomly selected devices, 23 fail a test. Use this sample to estimate the probability that a device from the same batch fails. Give your answer as a fraction or a decimal.

Hint

Use failures divided by the total number tested.

Worked solution

Of 250 randomly selected devices, 23 fail a test. Use this sample to estimate the probability that a device from the same batch fails. Give your answer as a fraction or a decimal.

  1. The relative frequency is the number of failures divided by the sample size.
  2. The estimated probability is \frac{23}{250}, which is also 0.092.

Question 121 mark

Two independent random samples are taken from the same large population using the same method. One has size 20 and the other size 200. Which statement is most reasonable?

Choose one answer
Hint

Distinguish greater reliability from a guarantee.

Worked solution

Two independent random samples are taken from the same large population using the same method. One has size 20 and the other size 200. Which statement is most reasonable?

  1. The sample of 200 is guaranteed to reproduce the population exactly.
  2. The sample of 20 must have a lower mean.
  3. Both samples must give the same results.
  4. The sample of 200 will usually give a more reliable estimate.
  1. A larger random sample is usually less affected by chance variation.
  2. This generally makes the larger sample more reliable, but does not guarantee an exact result.

Question 132 marks

A school has 240 pupils in Year 10 and 360 pupils in Year 11. A sample of 50 of these pupils is to be taken. The numbers of Year 10 and Year 11 pupils in the sample are to be in the same proportion as in the two year groups. How many Year 10 pupils should be in the sample?

Hint

Find what fraction of all the pupils are in Year 10.

Worked solution

A school has 240 pupils in Year 10 and 360 pupils in Year 11. A sample of 50 of these pupils is to be taken. The numbers of Year 10 and Year 11 pupils in the sample are to be in the same proportion as in the two year groups. How many Year 10 pupils should be in the sample?

  1. There are 240+360=600 pupils altogether.
  2. Year 10 is \frac{240}{600}=\frac{2}{5} of the pupils.
  3. The sample must have the same fraction: \frac{2}{5}\times50=20 Year 10 pupils.

Question 142 marks

A warehouse sends out 480 parcels in a day. Each parcel is first class or second class. Each day a sample of 24 parcels is checked. The proportion of first-class parcels in the sample is the same as the proportion of first-class parcels sent out that day. On Friday the sample contained 9 first-class parcels. Work out the number of first-class parcels sent out on Friday.

Hint

The sample is a smaller copy of the day's parcels: how many times bigger is the whole day?

Worked solution

A warehouse sends out 480 parcels in a day. Each parcel is first class or second class. Each day a sample of 24 parcels is checked. The proportion of first-class parcels in the sample is the same as the proportion of first-class parcels sent out that day. On Friday the sample contained 9 first-class parcels. Work out the number of first-class parcels sent out on Friday.

  1. The sample is in the same proportion as the whole day, so \frac{9}{24} of Friday's parcels were first class.
  2. The whole day is 480\div24=20 times the size of the sample.
  3. So the number of first-class parcels is 9\times20=180.

Question 153 marks

A sample of 100 seeds is tested. Exactly 62 germinate, 20 rot, and the remaining 18 do neither. The three groups do not overlap. Estimate how many seeds will not rot in a batch of 450 similar seeds.

Hint

Identify all sample groups included in “not rot” before scaling.

Worked solution

A sample of 100 seeds is tested. Exactly 62 germinate, 20 rot, and the remaining 18 do neither. The three groups do not overlap. Estimate how many seeds will not rot in a batch of 450 similar seeds.

  1. Seeds that do not rot include the germinating group and the group that does neither.
  2. There are 62+18=80 such seeds in the sample.
  3. Use the proportion \frac{80}{100}: \frac{80}{100}\times450=360.
  4. The estimate is 360 seeds.

Question 16Challenge4 marks

A tennis club has 900 members. Each member is a junior or a senior. A sample of 45 members, with juniors and seniors in the same proportion as in the club, contains 18 juniors. Later, 180 new junior members join and no members leave. A new sample of 42 members is taken in the same way. How many juniors should be in the new sample?

Hint

First use the first sample to work out how many juniors the club had.

Worked solution

A tennis club has 900 members. Each member is a junior or a senior. A sample of 45 members, with juniors and seniors in the same proportion as in the club, contains 18 juniors. Later, 180 new junior members join and no members leave. A new sample of 42 members is taken in the same way. How many juniors should be in the new sample?

  1. In the first sample, \frac{18}{45}=\frac{2}{5} were juniors, so the club had \frac{2}{5}\times900=360 juniors.
  2. After 180 juniors join, there are 360+180=540 juniors out of 900+180=1080 members.
  3. So juniors are now \frac{540}{1080}=\frac{1}{2} of the club.
  4. The new sample needs the same fraction: \frac{1}{2}\times42=21 juniors.

Question 17Challenge3 marks

A shipment contains 1000 items from factory A and 1200 from factory B. A random sample from A has 3 faulty items out of 50; a separate random sample from B has 2 faulty items out of 80. Estimate the total number of faulty items in the shipment.

Hint

Apply each factory's sample proportion to its own part of the shipment.

Worked solution

A shipment contains 1000 items from factory A and 1200 from factory B. A random sample from A has 3 faulty items out of 50; a separate random sample from B has 2 faulty items out of 80. Estimate the total number of faulty items in the shipment.

  1. Estimate faulty items from A: \frac{3}{50}\times1000=60.
  2. Estimate faulty items from B: \frac{2}{80}\times1200=30.
  3. Add the estimates: 60+30=90 faulty items.

Question 18Challenge2 marks

A website asks visitors to volunteer their views about a transport service. It receives many more responses than an earlier random sample. Which statement is justified?

Choose one answer
Hint

A large sample can still be selected in a biased way.

Worked solution

A website asks visitors to volunteer their views about a transport service. It receives many more responses than an earlier random sample. Which statement is justified?

  1. The larger number of volunteers guarantees an unbiased estimate.
  2. The voluntary sample may still be biased because people with strong views may be more likely to respond.
  3. Every voluntary response must be false.
  4. The earlier random sample must be exactly correct.
  1. Respondents select themselves, so the chance of responding may be related to their views.
  2. Increasing the number of such responses does not automatically remove that bias.
  3. The voluntary sample may therefore remain unrepresentative.

Question 19Challenge3 marks

A cinema has 1200 members. 75 members are asked which day of the week they prefer to watch films. 28 of them say Saturday.

(a)

Estimate how many of the 1200 members prefer Saturday.

2 marks

(b)

The 75 members were all asked at a Saturday evening screening. Which statement is correct?

1 mark

Choose one answer
Hint

Scale the sample fraction up to all the members, then think about who was asked.

Worked solution

A cinema has 1200 members. 75 members are asked which day of the week they prefer to watch films. 28 of them say Saturday.

Part (a)

Estimate how many of the 1200 members prefer Saturday.

  1. Assume the sample is representative, so \frac{28}{75} of all members prefer Saturday.
  2. \frac{28}{75}\times1200=28\times16=448 members.

Part (b)

The 75 members were all asked at a Saturday evening screening. Which statement is correct?

  1. The estimate in (a) is likely to be too low, because only 75 members were asked.
  2. The estimate in (a) is exact, because everyone asked was a member.
  3. The estimate in (a) is likely to be too high, because members at a Saturday screening are more likely to prefer Saturday.
  4. The estimate in (a) is not affected, because the members were chosen on one evening.
  1. People already at a Saturday screening are more likely than other members to prefer Saturday, so the sample is biased towards Saturday.
  2. So the fraction \frac{28}{75} is probably higher than for all members, and the estimate is likely to be too high.
  3. A small sample makes an estimate less reliable, but it does not push it in one direction, so "too low because only 75 were asked" is wrong.

Question 20Challenge4 marks

Two separate random samples are used to estimate use of a service by 600 residents. Before a change, 24 of 120 sampled residents used it. After the change, 54 of 180 sampled residents used it.

(a)

Estimate the increase in the number of residents using the service.

3 marks

(b)

Which conclusion is justified?

1 mark

Choose one answer
Hint

Estimate each population count separately, then compare the two estimates.

Worked solution

Two separate random samples are used to estimate use of a service by 600 residents. Before a change, 24 of 120 sampled residents used it. After the change, 54 of 180 sampled residents used it.

Part (a)

Estimate the increase in the number of residents using the service.

  1. Each sample fraction is used as an estimate of the fraction of all 600 residents.
  2. Before the change: \frac{24}{120}=\frac{1}{5}, so about \frac{1}{5}\times600=120 users.
  3. After the change: \frac{54}{180}=\frac{3}{10}, so about \frac{3}{10}\times600=180 users.
  4. The estimated increase is 180-120=60 residents.

Part (b)

Which conclusion is justified?

  1. The estimated increase must be exactly the increase in the number of users.
  2. The service must now be used by every resident.
  3. The samples suggest an increase, but do not establish the exact population change.
  4. The number of residents in the area must have increased.
  1. Both numbers of users are estimates from samples, and a different sample would give slightly different numbers.
  2. So the samples suggest that use has gone up, but they cannot tell us the exact increase. Nothing suggests the number of residents changed.